Core-+Resource

= Evaluate the ecological footprint as a measure of the relationship between population size and resource consumption. = = Identify international variations in its size. = Evaluate the ecological footprint as a measure of the relationship between population size and resource consumption The Ecological Footprint is defined as "the area of productive land and water ecosystems required to produce the resources that the population consumes and assimilate the wastes that the population produces, wherever on Earth the land and water is located." It compares actual throughput of renewable resources relative to what is annually renewed. Non-renewable resources are not assessed, as by definition their use is not sustainable.

(a) Measuring the ecological footprint The total “footprint” for a designated population’s activities is measured in terms of ‘global hectares.’ A global hectare (acre) is one hectare (2.47 acres) of biologically productive space with an annual productivity equal to the world average. Currently, the biosphere has approximately 11.2 billion hectares of biologically productive space corresponding to roughly one quarter of the planet’s surface.

These surfaces represent the sum total of biologically productive hectares we rely on for our survival. They represent the earth’s natural capital, and their annual yield represents our annual natural capital income.

(b) Ecological Overshoot Demonstrated Dividing the 11.2 billion hectares available by the global population indicates that there are on average 1.8 bioproductive hectares per person on the planet. The 2004 Living Planet Report indicates that the actual usage was 13.5 billion global hectares or 2.2 hectares per person – more than a 20% overshoot. The overshoot result indicates that our annual draw down of natural capital is liquidating natural capital income, as well as reducing natural capital itself. Such an overshoot is ecologically unsustainable.

(c) The Footprint of Different Activities This measure can also be presented in terms of the types of products or services provided by the global hectares, for example, in terms of goods from crop lands, animal products, fish, forest products, built up areas, and energy and water use. Such analyses identify which areas are placing the greatest strains on ecosystems, and can help set policy priorities. Growth in animal products and energy use, especially of fossil fuels, are two areas that are rapidly increasing these strains.

(d) The Footprint of Nations Ecological Footprint looks at the total amount of global hectares that are required to support a particular population, regardless of whether those hectares are within the national borders where that population lives. It does this by considering the net consumption of the population (or activity) of interest, subtracting the global hectares used for export from those used for imports and production. The Footprints of individual nations vary considerably, from highs of near 10 hectares per capita for such countries as the United Arab Emirates, the United States and Kuwait, to lows less than 1 hectare per capita for such countries as Haiti, Somalia and Afghanistan.

(e) The Footprint as an Indicator The idea of Ecological Footprint provides immediate intuitive appeal. Its implication for policy and planning purposes has been recognized, leading to its use by several countries and municipalities to implement and monitor their sustainable development agendas. It has been a useful research tool to explore the footprint of specific activities such as different modes of transportation or methods of farming.

(f) Limitations The Ecological Footprint is not a precise measure of ecological sustainability. It underestimates the impact of human activities on the biosphere. It focuses on renewable resources, the Footprint provides limited information about most non-renewable resources and their impact on ecosystems (with the exception of fossil fuel impacts which it partially addresses). The concept of “global hectares” of world average bio-productivity is useful only for looking at issues related to global footprint because e local areas may have bioproductivity rates different from the global average Allows only general types of bioproductive areas to be identified (e.g. cropland, forests, etc). Specific ecosystems within these areas are not addressed.

= = = Discuss the two opposing views (neo-Malthusian and anti-Malthusian) of the relationship between population size and resource consumption. = The Malthusian “Population Boom" – the origin (a) Thomas Malthus’s classic work ‘An Essay on the Principle of Population’ (1798) put forward the view that population grows faster than the means of feeding it. Population if unchecked would grow at a geometric rate: 2, 4, 8, 16, 32........ Whereas subsistence would only grow at an arithmetic rate: 1, 2, 3, 4...... Since population increases faster than production, the supply would essentially be stagnant or dropping so the demand would increase and so would the price, thus standard of living would fall.

(b) According to Malthus, there existed two general kinds of checks that limited population growth: (i) Preventative checks: to reduce the birth rate Moral restraint was the means by which the higher ranks of humans limited their family size in order not to dissipate their wealth among larger numbers of heirs. For the lower ranks of humans, vice and birth control were the means by which their numbers could be limited Restrict welfare for the poor. Malthus argued that welfare encouraged the poor to give birth to more children as they would have no fear that increased numbers of offspring would make eating any more difficult.

But Malthus believed that these were insufficient to limit the vast numbers of the poor

(ii) Positive checks: to increase the death rate. Famine Misery Plague War

Because preventative checks had not limited the numbers of the poor, Malthus thought that positive checks were essential to do that job. If positive checks were unsuccessful, then inevitably, famine would be the resulting way of keeping the population down.

(c) The value of Malthus Theory (i) The ideas that Malthus developed came before the industrial revolution and focused on plants, animals, and grains as the key components of diet. Therefore, for Malthus, available productive farmland was a limiting factor in population growth. With the industrial revolution and increase in agricultural production, land has become a less important factor than it was during the 18th century.

(ii) Malthus had failed to foresee certain changes in social organization and technology Expansion of agriculture land - clear forest, reclamation etc. Increase in agriculture productivity with the Green Revolution Improvement in the distribution of food

2. Meadows and the Club of Rome / Limits to Growth Theory/ Neo Malthusian The Club of Rome is a gathering of experts from diverse fields with the objective of studying how different factors can affect the future of the earth

(a) The world model was built to investigate five major trends of global concern Accelerating industrialization Rapid population growth Widespread malnutrition Depletion of non-renewable resources A deteriorating environment

(b) Conclusion of the Report If the present growth trends in world population, industrialization, pollution, food production, and resource depletion continue unchanged, the limits to growth on this planet will be reached sometime within the next one hundred years (First report was in 1972!). The most probable result will be an overshoot and collapse, a rather sudden and uncontrollable decline in both population and industrial capacity.

An example: Industrial growth depletes a large fraction of the resource reserves available. As resource prices rise and mines are depleted, more and more capital must be used for obtaining resources, leaving less to be invested for future growth. Finally investment cannot keep up with depreciation, and the industrial base collapses, taking with it the service and agricultural systems, which have become dependent on industrial inputs. Population, with the delays inherent in the age structure and the process of social adjustment, keeps rising. Population finally decreases when the death rate is driven upward by lack of food and health services.

(c) It is possible to alter these growth trends and to establish a condition of ecological and economic stability that is sustainable far into the future. The state of global equilibrium could be designed so that the basic material needs of each person on earth are satisfied and each person has an equal opportunity to realize his individual human potential.

(d) As a response to the optimistic views about technology, the reports states that “Faith in technology as the ultimate solution to all problems can thus divert our attention from the most fundamental problem--the problem of growth in a finite system--and prevent us from taking effective action to solve it.”

3. The I = P x A x T (alternative to malthusian) I - Environmental impact, may be expressed in terms of resource depletion or waste accumulation P - Size of the human population A - Level of consumption by that population T - Processes used to obtain resources and transform them into useful goods and wastes

The formula was originally used to emphasize the contribution of a growing global population on the environment, at a time when world population was roughly half of what it is now. It continues to be used with reference to population policy.

(a) Usefulness IPAT made two significant contributions. It drew attention to the fact that environmental problems involved more than pollution, and that they were driven by multiple factors acting together to produce a compounding effect. The IPAT equation also demonstrates that there are multiple ways of reducing undesirable effects. Different nations might focus on different factors to reduce their overall impact: Affluent countries could contribute most by reducing their level of consumption (A); Least developed countries could contribute most by reducing their population (P); Developing countries could make the greatest contribution by making their technologies more efficient (T).

(b) Limitations Applications have been limited to evaluation of a single variable measure of environmental impact, such as air pollution. E.g IPAT was used in assessing the contribution of different PAT factors to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Various applications have found that different types of impacts (eg whether CO2 or SO2 levels are being considered) relate differently to changes in population, affluence and technology.

The IPAT equation does not help us to identify sustainable limits regarding either individual or composite environmental impacts. Patterns of resource consumption Examine the global patterns and trends in the production and consumption of oil. Examine the geopolitical and environmental impacts of these changes in patterns and trends. Examine the changing importance of other energy sources.

Conservation strategies Discuss the reduction of resource consumption by conservation, waste reduction, recycling and substitution. Evaluate a strategy at a local or national scale aimed at reducing the consumption of one resource