Core-+Population

= Explain population trends and patterns in births (Crude Birth Rate), natural increase and mortality (Crude Death Rate, infant and child mortality rates), fertility and life expectancy in contrasting regions of the world. = = Fertility = Measuring fertility Total fertility rate (TFR) is the average number of children that would be born to a woman by the time she ended childbearing if she were to pass through all her childbearing years conforming to the age-specific fertility rates of a given year. The TFR sums up, in a single number, the fertility of all women at a given point in time. In effect, it says: This is the total number of children a woman would have if the fertility rates for a given year applied to her throughout her reproductive life. The TFR is a synthetic measure; no individual woman is very likely to pass through three decades conforming to the age-specific fertility rates of any single year. In reality, age-specific rates change and fluctuate from year to year, even if only gradually. For example, women who were ages 15-19 in 2003 may delay childbearing longer than women ages 15-19 in, say, 1990. They would lower the TFR a bit in 2003 but then raise it several years later when they begin their childbearing. Thus, year-to-year fluctuations in the TFR may reflect changes in the timing of births rather than changes in the average number of children women bear. Factors affecting ferility The factors affecting fertility can be classified into two groups: background variables and intermediate or proximate variables. The former includes cultural, psychological, economic, social, health, and environmental factors, while the proximate determinants are those factors that have a direct effect on fertility. The background factors operate through the proximate determinants to influence fertility; they do not influence fertility directly.

1. Biological/ Marriageable age Women are most fertile during the period of teens to late twenties (a) Developing countries Societies that practice early marriages tend to have higher number of births per woman Women in these societies will have ‘longer’ fertile years so they will tend to have more babies Developed countries More people in these countries are pushing marriage or pregnancy till much later, even after 30 years old Reasons for pushing marriages: career-minded, high standard of living So less probability of conceiving after 30 years old (b) Higher records of abortions Abortion can reduce the chance of getting pregnant in future so affecting fertility rates There are more and more teen and unwanted pregnancies so lead to higher rates of abortion More married young couples are going through abortions because of the high cost of living and high cost of supporting a baby More and more people are using contraception and even sterilization therefore affecting fertility rate

2. Socio-economic (a) Emancipation of women Women are allowed to go out of their homes Women have more choices, more say More external agencies (women rights agencies) formed to help women E.g. The National Women Suffrage Association (NWSA)

(b) Female Literacy Education of women has changed their economic status Women has higher societal status now With higher economic and societal status, more women are getting career-minded and are pushing marriages and pregnancies to a later age

(c) Level of technology in the country Countries (usu. developing) with high infant mortality rates (IMR), people would tend to have more babies To ensure that they have at least one surviving child Countries (usu. developed) with low IMR, people will have less babies as they do not have to worry that their baby will die

(d) Demographic factor Number of women within child-bearing age in a country More young women = higher BR = more babies Vice versa… for countries with less women within the child-bearing age, there will be less babies

(e) Children seen as economic assets As labour force: Helping hands in family businesses such as farms as farms require many workers/helpers Symbol of wealth: In some societies, children are seen as a symbol of wealth Some parents have more children so that someone can take care when they are old

3. Institutional (a) Religion: Some religious faiths are opposed to the use of contraception therefore fertility rate will be higher as compared to other countries. Examples: Islam : Pakistan, Iran Catholics: Philippines, Rep. of Ireland

(b) Government policies Government of countries with high BR will use policies to control population growth. E.g. China’s one-child policy Govt. of countries with low BR will use fiscal policies to encourage people to have more babies E.g. Singapore’s baby bonus

(c) Politics – war War is a natural control for BR However, after the war, there will always be a post-war baby boom The period 1946-1949 is the post war baby boom after WWII

= Mortality = 1. Measuring Mortality (a) Crude Death Rate The crude death rate is the number of deaths occurring among the population of a given geographical area during a given year, per 1,000 mid-year total population of the given geographical area during the same year. The CDR can be very misleading, though, because the index is generally influenced by the age structure of the population. E.g. While 2 countries can have the same CDR, depending on the proportion of the countries is made up of the ageing population, vastly different scenarios could exist. It is therefore prudent, when comparing death rates between countries, to adjust for differences in age composition before making inferences about a country’s health, economic, or environmental conditions.

(b) Infant Mortality Rate The IMR is the measure of the number of deaths of infants before their first birthday, per 1000 live births a year. The IMR is usually a good indicator of the country’s state of health as infants are more vulnerable to sickness and disease.

(c) Life Expectancy This measures the average number of years a person can expect to live. Life expectancy is a hypothetical measure because it is based on current death rates and actual death rates change over the course of a person’s lifetime. Each person’s life expectancy changes as he or she grows older and as mortality trends change. Life expectancy at birth is the most commonly cited life expectancy measure. It is a good indicator of current health conditions. Low life expectancies in developing countries are in large part the result of high infant mortality rates. In 1994, for example, life expectancy at birth for females in Bangladesh was 58 years, but if a Bangladeshi female survived to age 1, she could expect to live to age 62.

2. Factors affecting mortality (a) Demographic (e.g. age and gender) The likelihood of death increase with age (which I suppose is a fact of life!) Women tend to have a higher life expectancy. Though there are not specific set of factors been identified, biological and social factors have been considered.

(b) Medical technology (e.g. advances in medical care)

(c) Public health measures (e.g. sanitation, vaccination) Cholera and other water borne diseases often spread due to lack of public awareness of prevention measures like cleaning of stagnant water, leading to widespread breeding of dengue carrying mosquitoes. Lack of access to clean water in urban areas, poor sanitation and garbage collection systems along with the rainy season led to human waste with cholera bacteria washed into water sources and public drains. According to the World Bank, least developed countries like Cambodia spends as little as only $3 per person on healthcare

(d) Socio-economic (e.g. standard of living) Within a population there tends to be different strata of people, normally divided by income and/or social class. Mortality rates are higher among people on lower incomes and in manual occupations because they have less access to good healthcare and live in poorer environmental conditions than higher income groups. High rates of heart disease are concentrated in the old heavy industrial and inner city areas. Lung cancer is also more prevalent in industrial and densely populated areas with higher than average levels of pollution.

(e) Epidemics (e.g. Spanish flu) and pandemics (e.g. AIDS) Epidemics and pandemics are cases where contagious diseases are spread rapidly amongst a large population, with pandemics being on a larger and more global scale than epidemics. These diseases induce morbidity, which in turn has a high probability of leading to mortality. (i) Epidemics: Cholera in Zimbabwe, 2008 Swept across the country and spread to South Africa, Zambia and Botswana. 100,000 reported cases with a death toll of 4300. Spread of cholera from urban to rural areas. Infected city-dwellers visited their families’ rural homes during the holidays. Dead bodies infected with cholera buried haphazardly in rural areas. (ii) Pandemics: Avian Flu, H5N1 The outbreak in Hong Kong garnered worldwide attention in May 1997. The virus is constantly evolving. 295 deaths worldwide as of June 2010, WHO estimates a 60% human mortality rate. Affects poultry prices, farmers suffer large financial losses. Tourism is also adversely impacted. Measures include culling over 200 million birds to attempt to contain the disease. Over $10 billion has been spent on vaccines and new poultry farming practices. Stocking up of medicines such as Tamiflu, and drills have been run to educate the public on what to do in case of epidemics. (iii) AIDS Over 40 million HIV Positive people in the world today, with over 90% in the developing world. The major countries are South Africa, Nigeria and India. LDCs: Poor provision of healthcare. South Africa’s former president Thabo Mbeki’s denial of AIDS and refusal to address the problem resulted in ineffective governmental response to AIDS, increasing the already high death toll. DCs: Sexual promiscuity without protection. This leads to higher incidence and spread of AIDS due to a supposedly more liberal society. Social stigma: 27% of Americans would prefer not to work with a HIV-positive woman.

(f) Political (e.g. genocide, wars)

= Movement Responses – Migration = = Discuss the causes of migrations, both forced and voluntary. =

Push and pull factors are those factors which either forcefully push people into migration or attract them. A push factor is forceful, and a factor which relates to the country from which a person migrates. It is generally some problem which results in people wanting to migrate. Different types of push factors can be seen further below. A push factor is a flaw or distress that drives a person away from a certain place. A pull factor is something concerning the country to which a person migrates. It is generally a benefit that attracts people to a certain place. Push and pull factors are usually considered as north and south poles on a magnet.
 * The Causes of migration**

(a) Push Factors Environmental: Environmental degradation, natural hazards, epidemics, pollution, desertification, famine or droughts Social: civil strife, wars, uncomfortable living environment, slavery or forced labour, poor medical care, no religious freedom, discrimination, poor chances of marrying Economic: crop failure, farm fragmentation, poor economic prospects, not enough jobs, loss of wealth Political: corruption of government, biased government, inefficient public systems, fear or persecution, lack of freedom

(b) Pull Factors Environmental: Attractive climates, healthier environment Social: Better living conditions, more religious freedom, better education, better healthcare, greater security, links to family, better chances of marrying Economic: Job opportunities, better industries Political: Increased political freedom, stable governments Migration, both internal and international, has positive and negative effects on both receiving and sending countries.

3. Process of migration Ravenstein's Law of Migration The law was developed on the basis of migration in GB between 1871 and 1881. Most migration is over a short distance. Migration occurs in steps. Long-range migrants usually move to urban areas. Each migration produces a movement in the opposite direction (although not necessarily of the same volume). Rural dwellers are more migratory than urban dwellers. Within their own country females are more migratory than males, but males are more migratory over long distances. Most migrants are adults. Large towns grow more by migration than by natural increase. Migration increases with economic development.

= Evaluate internal (national) and international migrations in terms of their geographic (socio‑economic, political and environmental) impacts at their origins and destinations = Migration has many important impacts, both for the area of origin and the area of destination, and both beneficial and problematic. (a) The Source Area (i) Reduction in numbers Most obvious effect is the reduction in the size of the population. In most cases, population growth rate actually falls because migrants are often the most fertile young adults.
 * Traditional forms of migration **

(ii) Changes in age and sex structure Predominantly young adults, resulting in an unusually high proportion of older people in the area of origin. In some cases, migrants are predominantly of one sex, leading to an unbalance in the sex ratio. The changes in the population composition will also affect birth rate, leading to slower rate of population growth.

(iii) Loss of labour Absence of large number of able bodied men and women may affect production in the area of origin, especially if large number of labour are required in agriculture planting and harvesting seasons.

(iv) Reduction unemployment In a situation when an area is unable to generate employment for its people, migration will relieve much of the pressure. E.g. In rural Philippines and Thailand.

(v) Inflow of income Many migrants remit money to relatives back at home. The money is very needed in many resource stripped rural areas in the ELDCs. The money will enable the relatives back home to improve their standard of living.

(vi) Correcting balance of payment. Some ELDCs relied on remittance to correct any adverse balance of payment. In Grenada, remittance pays for 20 % of the nations' imports.

(b) The Receiving Area (i) Increase in the rate of growth The influx of population leads to a higher rate of population growth. However it is unclear whether migrants will be more or less fertile the incumbent population.

(ii) Alters the age and sex structure In areas that attract migrants, there is often an usually high proportion of young adults, and often, men out numbers the women.. in Calcutta, 2/3 of the population are males. Such changes have social consequences like increase incidence of prostitution.

(iii) A Plural Society Migration brings together people of different race, language and religion. In some cases, migrants can integrate successfully into the community, but there are also many incidences of social problems originating from a plural society. In many cities in the EMDCs, migrant communities from Indo-China or China remain distinct communities; bring problems like racism, gangs and crimes to the society.

Immigrants created a bimodal skill distribution, where most immigrants were either low skill or high skill workers. There were few who were in between. From this pattern, it can be deduced that it is the workers on the polar ends of the skill spectrum which have greater motivations to migrate
 * Contemporary form of migration: Transnational movement: skilled and unskilled labour **

(a) Skilled labour Skilled labour generally refers to any worker who has some special skill, knowledge, or (usually acquired) ability in their work, bringing some degree of expertise to the performance of a given job. Skilled workers are generally more trained, higher paid, and have more responsibilities than unskilled workers. Skilled workers tend to demand more in the way of financial compensation because of their efforts. . (b) Unskilled labour Unskilled labour movements arise mainly from the lesser developed countries which lack proper education, and thus these migrants provide largely manual or repetitive labour, such as construction workers or domestic helpers. Unskilled movements thus last for a shorter period of time than skilled labour flows, because links with the home country are considerably stronger. http://hdr.undp.org/en/reports/global/hdr2009/papers/HDRP_2009_08.pdf

Labour migration and impact (a) Benefits labour migration to the receiving country Migrant workers bring skills and qualifications Migrant workers including a number who are highly qualified, take on low paid, insecure work in areas like catering and domestic services, which local people find unattractive and are therefore unwilling to fill. A number of education authorities hire migrant workers directly from abroad to address the shortage of teaching staff. In health care sector migrant workers occupy positions that, left to local recruitment, would be hard to fill in terms of specialist skills or geographical areas. Migrant workers add large levels of entrepreneurship and self-employment, thereby creating new jobs. This can act as a spur to local people to start their own business, giving further impetus to economic growth. As migrant workers are also consumers, demand for goods and services increases, which in turn leads to additional demand for more labour, thereby increasing opportunity for all. The varied richness of their culture, customs and language, make a country more colourful, dynamic and vibrant. They also encourage an interest in the history and traditions of our respective cultures, which hopefully will lead to a greater tolerance and understanding.

(b) negative impact in receiving country Social tension Mostly the result of differences in customs and social norms, the presence of a large number of foreign workers can create conflicts in public spaces. Unbalance gender ratio of migrant workers also created undesirable outcomes like prostitutions and marital affairs. Burden on resources Foreign workers add stress to public resources like transport and housing, creating additional conflict with residents Depress wages and slow down productivity growth Foreign workers who are willing to take on jobs that are less attractive and accept low wages reduce incentives to increase productivity or redesign jobs Increase in supply of labour reduces general wages

(c) Benefits to sending countries Although many economic migrants work in relatively low-paid jobs they regularly send money home to their families and relatives. Remittances are more likely to occur where migrants intend to return home to families they leave behind, rather than where migration is permanent. These remittances equal, and in some cases exceed, official development aid in many countries.

Skills and knowledge Migrant workers who return home bring experience and knowledge and thus add to its pool of talented workers Worker s developed contact with people possessing a range of human, intellectual and professional skills. Acquiring new qualifications and a new language open up opportunities for career promotion at home

(d) Losses to sending countries Brain Drain The most crucial of which are the loss of expertise and skills. This brain drain is particularly acute in developing countries, especially where the move abroad is permanent. The biggest blow from the loss of healthcare professionals is felt by HIV/AIDS sufferers who are desperately in need of medical attention but are unable to receive it as doctors and nurses leave to work abroad.

Broken families In the increasing “feminisation of migration”, where more women are migrating for work, families are separated and children suffer the most Women’s work is largely undervalued and the burden is doubled in the case of women migrant workers who have the responsibility as breadwinners and carers for their families.

= Responses to high and low fertility = = Explain dependency and ageing ratios. = = Examine the impacts of youthful and ageing populations. = 1. Definition of Dependency Ratio: The dependency ratio measures the % of dependent people (not of working age) / number of people of working age (economically active)

2. The Real Dependency Ratio - how population structure is affected by changes in family structure (single parent/single person households), economic change and gender imbalance

(a) The real (or effective) dependency ratio looks at the ratio of economically active workers compared to inactive. The effective dependency ratio doesn't just look at the age profile but, whether people are economically active or not. For example, many people aged 16-65 are effectively economically inactive Students People on Sickness and disability allowance Long term unemployed (given up looking for work) Early retirement Mothers (or fathers) looking after children at home

Note: The unemployed are still counted as economically active, if they are actively seeking work. However, if they have given up looking for work, then they are counted as inactive.

(b) The definition of economically active is not always clear cut (e.g. a part time worker over 65 is something of a grey area.)

(c) Impact of Female Participation on Effective Dependency Ratios Many in Europe are concerned about an increase in the dependency ratio. e.g. Dependency ratio in UK is forecast to rise from 0.34 to 0.65 by 2040. However, it is worth bearing in mind that this rise in dependency ratio is partly offset by rising female participation in the labour market Smaller % of people under 18.

3. Importance of the Dependency Ratio The dependency Ratio is important because it shows the ratio of economically inactive compared to economically active. Economically active will pay much more income tax, corporation tax, and, to a lesser extent, more sales and VAT taxes. The economically inactive under 16 and over 65 also tend to be bigger recipients of government spending e.g. education, pensions and health care. An increase in the dependency ratio can cause fiscal problems for the government. e.g. Italy has a national debt of over 100%, a doubling of the dependency ratio is going to cause difficult choices for government to make.

4. The Impact of an Ageing Population on the Economy (a) An ageing population means there is a greater percentage of the population over the age of 65. Therefore, it means there is an increase in the dependency ratio, with a smaller percentage of workers supporting a greater number of people in retirement.

More people claiming benefits such as state pensions and less people working and paying income taxes Increased government spending on health care and pensions. Also, those in retirement tend to pay lower income taxes because they are not working. This combination of higher spending commitments and lower tax revenue is a source of concern for Western governments - especially those with existing debt issues. Those in work may have to pay higher taxes. This could create disincentives to work and disincentives for firms to invest, therefore there could be a fall in productivity and growth. Shortage of workers. An ageing population could lead to a shortage of workers and hence push up wages causing wage inflation. Alternatively, firms may have to respond by encouraging more people to enter the workforce, through offering flexible working practices. Changing sectors within the economy. An increase in the numbers of retired people will create a bigger market for goods and services linked to older people (e.g. retirement homes)

(b) Evaluation of an Ageing Population A declining birth rate could mean a smaller number of young people. This will save the government money because young people require education and pay little, if any, taxes. It depends on health and mobility of an ageing population. If medical science helps people live longer, but with poor mobility, there will be less chance to work. If people live longer and can remain physically active for longer, the adverse impact will be less.

(c) Government Responses to an Ageing Population Increase participation rate. Make it easier for people past 65 to keep working. Raise the retirement age. The government have already proposed an increase to 67. The retirement age could automatically be linked to life expectancy. Increase the importance of the private sector in providing pensions and health care. However this may cause increased inequality if people can't afford private pensions. Increase tax to pay for pension costs. But, many governments already have limited budgets. Immigration could be a potential way to defuse the impact of an ageing population because immigration is often from younger people.

= Evaluate examples of a pro-natalist policy and an anti-natalist policy. = Policy to Increase Fertility: Pro-Natalist Policy to Reduce Fertility: Anti-Natalist

Case Study- Pro-Natalist - Singapore (a) The Singapore Family Planning Program: Brief History One of the first Asian countries to have adopted a vigorous population programme as part of its socio-economic development strategy. In 1966, established the Singapore Family Planning and Population Board (SFPPB) to offer family planning services and to disseminate the small family norm – Two is enough Population was growing at about 2 per cent per year and the total fertility rate (TFR) stood at 4.7. Rapid economic growth between 1975 to 1986. Socio-economic development acted as one of the predisposing factors for the adoption of family planning March 1987, government announced its “New Population Policy” in which officially ended its anti natalist population programme.

(b) The Policy On 1 March 1987, the government announced the “Have three, or more if you can afford it” policy to replace the “Stop at two” policy in effect since 1972. As before, a package of incentives was introduced.

Personal Income Tax Third child relief increased on par with first two children Enhanced child relief Special tax rebate for couples who produce their third child Delivery and hospital expenses subsidy Unpaid childcare leave. Up to 4 years unpaid leave to look after their children (civil service) Childcare subsidy. Part-time work in the public sector. Full pay unrecorded leave to attend to their sick children . (c) The Aftermath Replacement fertility was attained in 1975, some 10 years after the start of ant-natalist policy. Since then, however, the level of fertility continued to fall steadily despite policy reversal- TFR reached a historic low of 1.1 in 2010

(i) In an affluent society, financial incentives may not matter much in such decisions Examples: almost all western European countries fertility has not responded to generous family allowances and financial incentives.

(ii) Fundamental structural forces would continue to hold down fertility and counter the effects of any pro-natalist measures. In terms of educational attainment and career advancement, provides women with a viable option to child-bearing. Because of the pressing labour shortage, the Government has been advocating greater participation of women in the labour force. In Singapore, the labour force participation rate of married women within the reproductive ages has been increasing steadily. In 1970, the rate was 15.8 per cent. This has increased by more than three times to 52 per cent in 1986. Difficulties in coping with the domestic and external demands Measures such as the generous leave provisions and the subsidy of child-care centre fees may make the combination of roles easier, but more such incentives may be required in the future. Children are valued for their psychological benefits to their parents rather than for their economic contributions to the family. The “quantity” is not as important as the “quality” of children; the parents’ need for procreation could be easily satisfied with one or two children.

Case Study- Anti-Natalist policy - China (a) The Chinese Family Planning Program: Brief History Recognition of population “problem” by late 1950’s but no real action By early 70’s beginning of building of huge infrastructure for services and publicity/education. TFR drop in 70’s from about 6 to under 3 (2.4) Population momentum and age structure continuing to feed growth Deng Xiaoping era began 1976 with population control as key development goal 1 Child Policy introduced in 1979-80: regulations, fines, infrastructure beefed up, population targets introduced Policy relaxed somewhat in mid 80’s: 2 in rural areas if 1st a girl, spacing etc. and settled into an urban “1 child” and rural “1.5” child policy and national minorities “2-3 child”. By early 2000 “1 Child” becoming the policy for an urban minority

(b) The Policy The one child policy, although not formally written into law consists of three main points. Advocating delayed marriage and delayed child bearing Advocating fewer and healthier births Advocating one child per couple

(c) However, the one-child policy does not mean that all families have only one child. Ethnic minorities are formally excluded from the policy, although some have reported being forced to comply. If both parents are only children, they are allowed to have more than one child provided the children are spaced more than four years apart. As more and more marriages involve only children, this exception could be troubling to Chinese officials. Families who have children with mental or physical disabilities are sometimes allowed to have a second child.

(d) Results: health and fertility impacts

Total population now 1.26 billion (would have been 1.6 billion without 1 Child Policy) Population growth controlled (26% in 1970 to 8.8 % in 2000) Total Fertility Rate reduced (1970: 5.81 to 2000: <2) Decrease in infant mortality and maternal mortality (IMR from 50/1000 in 1990 to 33 in 1998; MMR from 0.95 per 1000 to 0.56 in 1998) Increased life expectancy for both sexes due to IMR declines (about 70 years old) Population growth (13 million/year) is due to demographic momentum Population stabilization predicted by 2050 at 1.6 billion (about 400 million more persons) (US is about 300 million)

(e) The Aftermath (i) Growing Chinese Government Concerns about the 1 Child Policy Targets have led to overzealous implementation by some officials and rights abuses Strong opposition by rural population to methods of the policy: one of major complaints about local governance Pressure to achieve targets has led to false reporting

(ii) Gender impacts: The Girl Child Sex Ratio: 117 boys to 100 girls (Census 2000) (Liaoning 306 to 100 for second births 1992-97) Sex selective abortion widely used Female infant abandonment Declining school enrolment for girls in poor rural areas because of school fees Girl child survival: 21/1000 excess deaths in 0-4 ages for higher parities: delay in health seeking and seeking delivery care Major ‘Human Right’ issue has affected China’s relationship with the industrial west.

(iii) Demographic Impacts Skewed ratio of workers to elderly: 9% of Population over 60 in 2000; by 2030 will be 22%: and 10% of GDP on Pensions Generation of only children (little emperors) and one couple with care of four parents: Obesity and overweight of 10% of urban only children Below replacement level fertility in cities (especially Shanghai)